White House Countdown: The One-Year March to Election 2024

Primaries, Polls, and Legal Woes. 364 Day till Election 2024.

It’s November 6, 2023. Precisely 364 days out from the presidential election day. This is the latest news on Election 2024.

It’s Looking Like a 2020 Rerun: Trump vs. Biden

Looks like the 2024 election is shaping up to be a rerun of the 2020 election. Biden, for the time being, expressed no intention of dropping out as the Democrat nominee, and Trump still holds a comfortable 45-point lead ahead of Desantis, who’s holding onto second place. I guess those lifters he has been wearing haven’t helped him in the polls.

Vivek Ramaswamy was seen as a rising star early on, but it appears that his debate and rap performances did not help to keep that star on the upward trajectory and are currently stagnating in the polls. Many viewed his first debate performance as too aggressive, followed by a severe over-correction in the second debate, which led people to start to question his authenticity. He emphasizes that he’s not a politician, but the drastic overcorrection was very reminiscent of a politician. On the other hand, Nikki Haley has gained momentum and passed Ramaswamy in the polls after the September Republican primary debate. She’s currently in third place, trailing DeSantis by 4 points.

Last week, Mike Pence threw in the towel, but I can’t fathom why Scott, Cristie, Hutchinson, and Burgum are still wasting time, money, and breath in this race if you ask me.

The wildcard in the race for both sides is Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who announced in early October that he was switching his candidacy from Democrat to Independent. Kennedy appealed to both sides of the political spectrum for different reasons, and although winning the presidency is unlikely, it is not impossible. If we learned anything from 2020, it is that when it comes to presidential elections, anything is possible. However, what is not in question is whether he will affect the outcome of this election. How that manifests remains to be determined.

To the Polls

There is little doubt that the Democrats are starting to freak out, as demonstrated by well-known Democrat strategist David Axelrod advising Biden not to run. It’s clear Walter…er Biden is not doing well with his approval rating, and most recently, in a head-to-head much-up with Trump, it may not be worth Biden getting up from his nap to campaign.

Biden Seeks Approval, Doesn’t Get it.

So, turns out President Joe Biden isn’t exactly everyone’s favorite leader these days, shocker, I know, especially among his own party. The Democrats’ support for ol’ Joe has dropped a whopping 11 percentage points, hitting a pitiful 75%, which is basically rock bottom for him with his own crew. And guess what? His overall approval rating has tanked, too, landing at a pathetic 37%. Yep, that’s tied for his all-time low and even lower than what Trump scored at this point before the 2020 election. It’s not just the Democrats who are unimpressed. Those independents are also jumping ship, losing 4 points of approval to land at a measly 35%. Meanwhile, the Republicans are predictably not interested in a solid 5%. By the way, who is in this 5%? It seems like Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict and all those other domestic and international issues have left his own party feeling pretty lukewarm. The enthusiasm for Biden is fading faster than you can say “foreign aid debate.”

Trump vs. Biden

Approve ratings aren’t Biden’s only problem. In a recent NYT poll, President Biden appears to lag behind former President Trump in five crucial battleground states. The gap isn’t just a hair’s breadth; we’re talking a range of three to ten percentage points, which in the political arena might as well be a chasm, one that Biden appears to be falling into head first. Not surprisingly, considering the man shuffles more than he walks.

Things are really not looking good. The once reliable minority coalition may not be the Democratic stronghold it has historically been. Showing signs of fragmentation, particularly in states with more diverse populations, Biden’s support seems to be waning in favor of Trump. The poll suggests that if Biden doesn’t pick up his feet soon, Trump could be sailing towards a hefty electoral college win, potentially surpassing 300 votes, leaving Biden on his rear at the bottom of Air Force One’s short stairs. The kicker? Voters feel Trump’s policies have put money in their pockets, while Biden’s have done the opposite. It’s a personal pocketbook issue, with Trump enjoying a 17-point lead in the ‘helped me personally’ category, while Biden is trailing with an 18-point deficit on the same measure. I guess Bidennomics isn’t going as planned.

Front Runner Woes

Trump’s Very Full Legal Dancecard

Trump has multiple cases pending against him. So many that I am not going to list them all today, but I am going to touch on the most significant.

NYC Civil Fraud Trial

It’s kind of interesting that Trump appears in court in New York City for his civil fraud trial precisely 364 days before the election. Judge Arthur Engoron is overseeing the case, and it’s targeting Trump and the Trump Organization. Trump hasn’t held back his thoughts about the situation outside of the courtroom, calling it “very sad” for the country. He’s also criticized his critics as “thugs” and called the trial nothing more than “political warfare.”

But let’s be honest: Trump’s gripes about New York Attorney General Letitia James aren’t baseless. She campaigned on suing and prosecuting Trump and now seeks a heavy penalty, including banning Trump from doing business in New York State. This hasn’t gone unnoticed by Trump supporters, who see the legal pursuit as a fulfillment of a personal vendetta rather than fair justice.

Earlier this year, Judge Engoron issued a partial summary judgment that found Trump fraudulently exaggerated his net worth. The judge cited “conclusive evidence” and stated that Trump had overstated his worth by $812 million to $2.2 billion. Engoron particularly criticized how Trump valued his penthouse and Mar-a-Lago estate.

Trump has strongly criticized the judge’s decisions as “outrageous” on social media. He even called Engoron a “deranged” judge influenced by a Democratic agenda. During today’s court proceedings, when the judge asked Trump not to include disclaimers in his testimony and to answer the questions, Trump replied, “He called me a fraud, and he didn’t know anything about me,” referring to Judge Engoran.

Therefore, this trial isn’t just about legality; it’s also about perceived impartiality. The defense argues that the proceedings are a “Witch Hunt at a level never seen before,” comparing the personal legal challenge to a broader political attack.

But this is just Trump’s most current legal battle, with three more on the horizon.

The Georgia RICO case

Down in Georgia, Trump’s got another legal tangle to wrangle with—a criminal charge for allegedly trying to flip the 2020 election. He’s pled not guilty and says he is ready for a throwdown in Georgia. Fulton County’s own DA, Fani Willis, is steering this ship with Trump and a crew of co-conspirators, several of whom have already pleaded guilty. Willis is eyeing a March 4, 2024, court date—a play that could throw a wildcard into the Super Tuesday mix. I am also only two hours away from this spectacle. Stay tuned for some possible courtroom visits.

2020 Election Interference

In federal court, Trump faces two separate challenges.

Special Counsel Jack Smith is focusing on Trump for the 2020 election “insurrection” without charging him with insurrection. Smith alleges serious charges, including conspiracy and witness tampering, stemming from Trump’s alleged attempts to undermine the outcome of the 2020 presidential election. Smith asserts that Trump’s actions were based on false statements aimed at obstructing the fair collection, counting, and certification of electoral votes, a fundamental procedure of the U.S. government. Smith has sought restrictions on Trump’s public statements and obtained a partial gag order. Judge Aileen Cannon is considering a trial starting in May 2024.

But could this case be falling apart? It’s been reported that federal prosecutors withdrew subpoenas for records from Trump’s 2020 campaign and the Save America political action committee. Could this be a slowdown or termination of the investigation into whether Trump’s political operation made baseless claims of election fraud to raise money?

Investigation Into Classified Documents

Down in Florida, the judge overseeing Trump’s case about the alleged mishandling of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, U.S. District Judge Aileen M. Cannon, is pondering a delay to the trial set for May 2024. The main reason? Trump’s dance card is already too full with other cases.

At a recent hearing, prosecutors pushed to keep the current schedule while Trump’s defense team argued for more time to comb through the substantial evidence. Judge Cannon rightfully questioned the feasibility of sticking to the planned dates, especially with another federal trial in Washington just before the Florida trial.

Trump is accused of mishandling classified info and obstructing its retrieval, to which he pleads not guilty. But the plot thickens: his defense team also deals with Mar-a-Lago’s security footage showing aides moving document boxes and the challenge of sifting through classified materials.

Good Old Biden

The House Oversight Committee led by Comer still has its eyes on Biden and his familial generosity. It seems Joe Biden’s little Jim has been slipping some checks into Joe’s pockets. We’re talking checks with more zeros than an Irish family reunion. One from Sara Biden, for $40,000, casually noted as a “loan repayment.”

But wait, it gets better. On the same day, Americore decided to wire $200,000 to Jim and Sara. Jim wrote a check for the same amount to Joe. Coincidence? The committee’s eyebrows are raised so high they’re practically hairline accessories at this point. They’re tossing around words like “laundered” and nodding towards CEFC China Energy with a wink and a nudge.

And just when Joe thought he had built a “wall” between himself and his family’s business—direct deposit evidence suggests otherwise. With all of this growing evidence, Speaker Mike Johnson is dropping the “I” word, suggesting that the House will soon be looking at impeachment. No dates are set in stone, but the House is buzzing, and it seems like Joe’s got some ‘splaining to do.

Conclusion

As we look ahead to the 2024 election, there is little doubt this will be a long and eventful journey. The first significant event is Super Tuesday, which will set the stage for the rest of the campaign season. It’s a significant first test for the candidates vying for their party’s nomination, and it’s all going down with the spectacle of Trump’s Georgia RICO trial in the background. That’s bound to stir up the media frenzy and inject even more drama than an episode of Real Housewives.

Biden has made it clear he’s planning to run for a second term despite concerns about his age and his disappointing approval numbers. But if we are honest, Gavin Newsom or Kamala Harris are lurking in the shadows, praying for Biden to stumble, literally.

The road to the White House is never straight. It’s always filled with unexpected turns, and this election cycle will be no different. While Biden holds his ground, Trump’s legal drama unfolds, and DeSantis stands on his tip-toes, we should brace for an election season full of surprises, debates, and political maneuvering. One thing is sure: the 2024 election will be anything but dull, so keep your eyes peeled, and I will do my best to help you stay informed.